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Prediction for CME (2013-05-22T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-05-22T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/306/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-05-24T17:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Dst min. in nT: -55
Dst min. time: 2013-05-25T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-05-24T15:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 7.66
Prediction Method: BHV
Prediction Method Note:

From: Volker Bothmer 
Subject: new forecast
Date: May 22, 2013 2:59:37 PM EDT
May 22, 2013
A fast CME was observed by SOHO and STEREO at about 2 p.m. UT. Its onset 
was associated with an X-ray flare of M-intensity starting at 12:30 UT 
at N13W75 and a solar proton event. The estimated arrival time of the 
CME flank is 15:30 UT on 24 May 2013. This corresponds to 17:30 UT local 
time in mid Europe. The expected speed at L1 is 800 km/s and its 
geomagnetic impact is estimated to be in the range Kp 6-8-. The CME 
magnetic field is modeled NSE so that the peak of the storm may occur 
near midnight of May 24 yielding chances to watch aurorae in northern 
Europe and southern Scandinavia. A very strong storm however is not very 
likely because of the western position of the CME source region.
Cheers, Volker

Lead Time: 46.60 hour(s)
Difference: 2.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-05-22T18:59Z

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